alex white's picture
Thu, 26/10/2006 - 11:20am — alex white

You may not have seen the front-page headlines for the Herald Sun and The Age:

BACKLASH
Bracks risks losing 16 seats
Poll finds ALP is out of touch

and

Libs face crushing loss at poll
One in eight to vote for the Greens

Guess which headline comes from which paper…

The Herald Sun article was the most interesting - the Labor vote seems to have fallen by 5.8%, from 57.8% (in Nov, 2002) to 52% (in Oct 2006). Even more interesting is the post-script to the article:

In a blow for Mr Bracks, almost half the people polled said Labor did not deserve to win again. Only 49 percent said they deserved to win based on their recent performance, compared to 43 percent who said they did not. Eight percent were uncommitted.

Mr Baillieu fared worse, with almost two in every three saying they did not believe the Liberals deserved to win the election.

Basically what this poll incidates is that the electorate has a cynical attitude to both Labor and Liberal parties, but that they harbour much more confidence in Bracks than in Baillieu.

The Age poll (from ACNielsen) shows that the Greens will maintain their high vote - around 13% (mostly concentrated in the Inner City). This will probably be most useful in their Upper House campaign, as the hurdles they need to overcome for a Lower House seat are almost insurmountable.